Washington GOP Supresses Its Own Vote

This has to be a first. During yesterday's Republican caucus in Washington the state party chair decided to forgo counting all the votes and simply declared John McCain the winner. At the time, John McCain led by 1.3% and there was 13% of the vote remaining. Without even looking at the remaining precincts the party chair did some sort of half-ass statistical analysis and decided Mike Huckabee had no chance to win.

Of course the Huckabee campaign wants all the votes to be counted and when they requested that one of their lawyers be present for the recount the state party chair hung up on them. Now I realize that the Republican party is supportive of voter suppression tactics but I never thought they would disenfranchise their own primary voters...

From CBS (H/T - TPM):

Huckabee campaign lawyer Lauren Huckabee (daughter-in-law of the candidate), who is skeptical of the fairness, asked for a lawyer to monitor the results.

The state GOP denied the request and hung up on Lauren Huckabee, according to the campaign. Campaign adviser Ed Rollins will be sending lawyers to Olympia, scheduled to land this evening, to investigate the matter.

At a hastily arranged press conference in a hotel room, Rollins was steamed.

“You don’t get to announce the votes until they are all counted. And obviously, by his attempts to project without any statistical data or even if he had statistical data, it’s irrelevant: we’re entitled to a fair, full count," Rollins said.

"Our lawyers attempted to contact him today, finally did so about ten minutes ago. He said, ‘Well I don’t know where the precincts, are, I just sort of did it. How dare Mike Huckabee challenge – he has to trust us. We’re going to count the rest of the votes today in the office.’"

"We asked to have someone go in to the office with them and count the votes and he refused us."

Post of the Day

From Josh Marshall :

The Rudy Story
Over $50 million for a single delegate.

As the LA Times notes, that's the worst dollar for delegate record in American presidential history. The previous winner was John Connally who spent $11 million for a single delegate in 1980.

And at that rate Rudy would have needed $60 billion to win the nomination

I have never seen a more inept campaign at any level than the one Giuliani put forward. I would want my damn money back...

Why the Republican Establishment Can't Stand Huckabee

I had a 12 hour drive the other day through the Midwest and so about the only thing on AM radio was conservative talk radio. I can't say that it's my favorite programming but Rush Limbaugh was on so I decided to listen in for a while. The whole time I was listening Rush was attacking Iowa's Republican caucus winner Mike Huckabee and the idea of populism in general. From what I could tell Rush didn't seem to like Huckabee because he wasn't a "true conservative", and if you pay attention you'll hear this a lot from the Republican establishment.

Like I said, I had some free time, so I decided to think about the current crop of Republican candidates and why the establishment seems to view Huckabee with nothing but contempt. First things first, it definitely can't be because he's not conservative enough; I mean this is a field with Giuliani, Romney and McCain. But then I started to think about the philosophy behind conservatism and it hit me. The establishment doesn't like him because he threatens the status quo and will expose the "conservative" ideology for the farce that it is. Stay with me here.

For decades the elitist Wall Street conservatives have dominated the Republican party. They've been able to gain power by convincing social conservatives that their interests are aligned with the interests of the business elite. These elitists have used the social conservatives to further their financial agenda while paying lip service to social issues and fiscal conservatism. Social conservatives have been the machine behind the grassroots movement within the Republican party as they are the ones making phone calls, organizing rallies, stuffing envelopes, etc.

Despite all evidence to the contrary, social conservatives continued to vote Republican because the alternative was to support more socially liberal candidates. Regardless of how bad the fiscal and foreign policies became they continued to support the party. But all that changes with Huckabee - he's one of them. And he's telling them things they've known deep down for some time but just didn't dare express. He's telling them how "free market" and "free trade" policies aren't always the answer. He's telling them that our health care system is a disaster and getting worse.

His populist rhetoric is working and it scares the hell out of the establishment. Because once social conservatives realize they have been bamboozled by the current crop of elitist conservative cronies, they will seize their party leadership and begin to promote policies actually strengthen working class Americans. And where will the elite Wall Street robber barons go then? They are no longer welcome in the Democratic Party - I suppose their only hope would be a Hillary victory. Just watch how this debate shapes up, the elitists will decry populism as a divisive political ploy that pushes class warfare to further a political agenda. But what they won't tell you is that is exactly what they have been doing to social conservatives for decades.

And if all this sounds familiar it's because we're watching the same thing happen here in the Allen County Republican Party. Matt Kelty was an outsider that threatened the entrenched interests within the party. Instead of simply using the average Republican voter he vowed to give them a voice. He brought new people into the party and fought like hell to change the status quo. Now Kelty had his flaws (we all do) and ultimately they were his undoing but his message of change was powerful and it scared some people in his own party.

Now Huckabee is no Kelty as he's a seasoned politician who has been through the ringer a time or two. Some seem to be writing his Iowa victory off as anomaly but I'm not so sure. The populist wave is rising, even within the Republican Party, and those that choose not to ride it will likely be crushed...

Iowa Caucuses

First off let me start by saying that the Iowa Caucus is an elitist and undemocratic process. If you want to participate you have to be there at a specific time and your vote might not count as much as somebody from another precinct. So if your job won't allow you to get away tomorrow evening, or you're serving our country in Iraq, well I guess that's just too damn bad and you don't count. People are disappointed at the 30% turnout we get here in the municipal elections but the Iowa Caucus turns out about 5% of registered voters - pathetic. On the Democratic side it's not even a secret ballot and if your chosen candidate doesn't get 15% of the vote then he's eliminated and you get to choose again. It's ridiculous.

Having said that, it's going to be interesting to watch to see if Huckabee can go from worst to first and pull out the victory. Readers may remember months ago when I went out on a limb and predicted Huckabee would win the GOP nomination despite barely registering in the polls. I did this because I thought his populist rhetoric coupled with his Christian Conservative credentials would give primary voters a distinct choice.

Recently it looked like Huckabee was soaring to an easy victory in Iowa but then the Republican machine decided he wasn't "their guy". The old Republican guard began sniping at him while Romney unleashed a barrage of negative ads. Like usual, they worked and Huckabee has been trailing off enough over the past couple weeks to make tomorrow night's result a toss-up.

I always say there are two types of people in politics, those who are in it for the government service and those who are in it for the competition. What Huckabee is finding out (although he probably already knows this) is that you need both to be successful. He needs a machine of supporters that can hit back when Romney attacks him because Nice Guy Huck can't win - the old guard simply won't allow it.

The significance of tomorrow's results are that if Romney loses and goes on to lose New Hampshire to McCain (he likely would) then he might very well be toast. Yet if he pulls out a victory in Iowa then he would be the front runner from there on out. I mean who else is going to compete? Thompson? Guiliani? They're done. Ron Paul? A 3rd place finish would keep him alive but anything worse would make it difficult to go forward. I haven't been paying as much attention to the Democratic side because frankly it's not as interesting. The only real significance I see is that if Edwards loses then he's probably done.

Don't forget to checkout Pat McAlister of Political Equinox, Fort Wayne's local blogger on the ground covering the event. And as a fellow political junkie I'll be watching the coverage of the event but as a populist I think it's a farce...

Jim Bopp Slams Brownback for Pro-Rudy Comments

Looks like our local Kelty supporter/attorney, Jim Bopp, is back in the news because he is irate that former presidential candidate Sam Brownback is giving Rudy Guiliani a pass on his pro-choice position. Bopp is a supporter of Mitt Romney so one can imagine why he might be angry. However, publicly attacking Brownback before he's even made an endorsement is not particularly good politics; then again this is the same guy that helped send Matt Kelty's mayoral campaign into the tank because he wanted to further his own anti-campaign finance reporting agenda.

Note to candidates - avoid Jim Bopp at all costs...

One of the big stories of the day in GOP primary politics is conservative Senator Sam Brownback's new and eyebrow-raising assertion yesterday that he is suddenly "much more comfortable" than before about Rudy's abortion views. Brownback said this after meeting with Rudy yesterday.

Now there's been another key development in the story.

Jim Bopp, one of Mitt Romney's top social conservative supporters, just lashed out repeatedly at Brownback in an interview with me for his kind words about Rudy's abortion views, accusing Brownback in scathing terms of putting "personal benefit" before the pro-life cause.

"There's obviously something more going on here than fidelity to the pro-life cause," said Bopp, a legendary pro-life activist and lawyer who is an important voice for Romney because he vouches for his conservatism. "Brownback is angling for some personal political benefit by cozying up to Giuliani."

Bopp's stinging criticism of Brownback is somewhat surprising, because the support of Brownback, who recently dropped out of the Presidential race, is coveted by GOP candidates such as Romney because it would shore up their conservative credentials. Romney and Rudy are engaged in a heated war over the evangelical and social conservative vote.

Brownback's dalliance with Rudy, Bopp said, is "particularly surprising in light of his unwillingness to accept Romney's conversion, which happened several years ago. Now he is willing to accept Giuliani's statements of the last day or so."

"Giuliani is unequivocal -- he wants abortion to be legal," Bopp continued. "Brownback claimed that the raison d'etre of his campaign was protecting human life. "So the only way that you can look at what he is saying now and what he is doing now is that he is prepared to compromise the pro-life movement and cause to advance his own personal political agenda."

The suggestion here is that Brownback is cozying up to Rudy because he thinks the Mayor is on his way to winning the GOP nomination -- and that he's willing to throw the pro-life movement under the bus to be with the winner.

H/T: TPM

Which 2008 Presidential Candidate Agrees With You?

Okay folks, this one's just for fun. Click the graphic below to take this short quiz to see which candidate best matches your views and positions on the issues. Will you be surprised? I wasn't. . .I'll leave my results in the comments and encourage you to share yours there as well:

Hillary Dominates 2008 Presidential Polls

I had a discussion tonight with local bloggers and city council candidates about the upcoming presidential election. They seemed to disbelieve my comments when I told them that Hillary Clinton would defeat any Republican candidate in the presidential election. I want to issue a caveat here - I'm not a Hillary supporter and I will likely not vote for her in the primary. Unfortunately, the Indiana primary occurs so late in the election cycle that the nominee will will probably already be decided by the time I vote. However, polling data cannot be ignored - despite what the two men sitting next to us at the bar might think. After I reminded them that the polls showed Democrats poised for an epic beatdown of Republicans before the 2006 midterm election they became quite silent with no rebuttal. The moral here is that polls matter.

Let me ask these deniers - which state that Kerry won will Hillary lose? The answer is none. So the question becomes which states that Kerry lost will Hillary win? Here's some of the recent polling data:

Pres '08 (National)
Sep 14 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 43%
Sep 11 CNN
Clinton 55% (D) 55%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton 50% (D) , Giuliani (R) 46%

FL-Pres
Sep 12 Quinnipiac
Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 40%

VA-Pres
Sep 11 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 44%

OH-Pres
Sep 6 Quinnipiac
Clinton 47%, Giuliani 40%
Clinton 49%, Thompson 37%

MO-Pres
Aug 28 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 42%

AR-Pres
Aug 17 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 55%, Giuliani (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 55%, Thompson (R) 36%

IA-Pres
June 18 SurveyUSA
Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 11%

NM-Pres
June 18 SurveyUSA
Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, F. Thompson (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 9%

For those of you keeping score at home that's an additional 89 electoral votes and more than enough to send Hillary to the White House. I'm not suggesting that Hillary will be our next President or that the results will necessariely follow these polls, but discounting her candidacy is completely foolish.

To borrow from Matt Kelty's parlance - A Ham Sandwich could beat the Republican party in the upcoming elections...

Huckabee Rolls On

GOP Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee's campaign is starting to gain steam after his populist speeches helped lead him to a surprising 2nd place finish in the Iowa straw poll:

"People actually return our phone calls. They are starting to believe," Saltsman tells me. Ever since Huckabee's strong second place showing in the Iowa straw poll, Saltsman has seen a big difference. “We’ve had a good 10 days since the straw poll. We definitely had our best stretch online since the straw poll. We now have thirteen fundraisers on the books with either five or six pending. Half of the money is coming from Arkansas, a good chunk from Texas and strong interest in California.”
One of those donors in California is a billionaire but the campaign won’t reveal who it is except to say that it is not a celebrity.

The GOP isn't going to nominate Rudy Guiliani because, well because he's nuts for starters. Romney seems to be floundering while McCain's straight talk expressed derailed while the conductor was kissing the President's keister and Fred Thompson hasn't even declared. So can Huckabee pull off the upset?

(H/T: TPM)

Huckabee Makes His Move

I told you he was going to gain steam. Huckabee just finished 2nd in Iowa straw poll with 18.1% of the vote:

Gov Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames straw poll, receiving 4516 votes, or 31%.

In a surprise, Gov. Mike Huckabee finished second with 2587 votes at 18.1%

11. John Cox with 41 votes.
10. John McCain with 101 votes.
9. Duncan Hunter with 174 votes.
8. Rudy Giuliani with 183 votes.
7. Fred Thomson with 231 votes.
6. Tommy Thompson, 1,009 votes, 7.3%
5. Ron Paul with 1305 votes, and 9.1%
4. Tom Tancredo with 1961 votes, 13.7%.
3. Sen. Sam Brownback with 2192 votes and 15.3%

Iowa state auditor David Vaudt unofficially certified the results.

14,203 ballots were cast.

It's important to note that Giuliani and McCain did not officially take part in the straw poll which is essentially a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party. However, a poor showing for 2nd tier candidates here can cause the campaign to re-evaluate and drop out of the race.

This 2nd place finish should give Huckabee more press coverage and some much-needed campaign cash. I see this Republican primary shaping up as a battle between the DC establishment and a southern conservative populist. I still think the populist message is going to be tough to beat...

A Populist Republican Presidential Candidate?

I never thought I would see the day, but I must say that I was completely shocked after watching the Republican presidential debate held Sunday on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos. During the debate, nearly every candidate came across as completely out-of-touch and completely unelectable - except for one.

"We have to start addressing building this country, and not everybody else's."

"If we can feed ourselves, if we can fuel ourselves, if we can manufacture the weapons to fight for ourselves, we're a free people. If we can't do those three things, we're not free"

"You know, if you want to know how to fix it, I've got a solution. Either give every American the same kind of health care that Congress has, or make Congress have the same kind of health care that every American has"

"The reality is, if we could have the fair tax, you take $10 trillion parked offshore, bring it home, you rebuild the 'made in America' brand, you free up people to earn money, to work, you don't penalize them for taking a second job, you don't penalize them for investing, you don't penalize them for savings"

I'm going to go out on a limb here (and it's certainly too early to do this but what hell). I think Mike Huckabee is going to win the GOP nomination. He's got the conservative credentials to appeal to the base and a populist message for independents and moderates. His only problem right now is money but as the media starts to cover him he's likely to influence more donors. Tonight he was on Hardball and he continued his populist speech. Just listen to this and tell me how any of the other Republicans are going to beat this guy. Mike Huckabee is the only GOP candidate that has a chance to win the general election. The Democratic candidates had better start paying attention...



Video H/T: TPM

Congressman Souder Supports Gingrich Candidacy

Congressman Mark Souder seems to have tentatively thrown his support behind a Newt Gingrich candidacy.

In 1997, Rep. Mark Souder (R-Ind.) wanted to dump Newt Gingrich as speaker of the House.

Ten years later, he wants him to run for president -- and he might even support him.

"He's the best idea guy in either party," Souder said in an interview, describing his change of heart from a decade ago when he was one of the rebels who believed Gingrich should no longer lead the Republican majority in the House.

"He should get in the race, because I think we need someone who can push issues," Souder said.

Let us not forget that not only did Souder want to dump Newt as speaker, but also was one of a handful of Congressional members that attempted to field a coup to oust Gingrich as speaker. Of course, ever the ineffective Congressman, Souder's attempt failed when he backed the wrong guy and the leadership decided to pull out of the deal. To this day, I think that debacle is what's lead to Souder's stagnate career within Congress - he simply can't be trusted.

Now the field of Republican candidates are so poor that Souder is backing a man that he tried to remove from his own party's leadership - and now he wants this guy to be President? Just another sad example of Mark Souder's "leadership"...