Let me ask these deniers - which state that Kerry won will Hillary lose? The answer is none. So the question becomes which states that Kerry lost will Hillary win? Here's some of the recent polling data:
Pres '08 (National)
Sep 14 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 43%
Sep 11 CNN
Clinton 55% (D) 55%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton 50% (D) , Giuliani (R) 46%
FL-Pres
Sep 12 Quinnipiac
Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 40%
VA-Pres
Sep 11 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 44%
OH-Pres
Sep 6 Quinnipiac
Clinton 47%, Giuliani 40%
Clinton 49%, Thompson 37%
MO-Pres
Aug 28 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 42%
AR-Pres
Aug 17 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 55%, Giuliani (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 55%, Thompson (R) 36%
IA-Pres
June 18 SurveyUSA
Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
NM-Pres
June 18 SurveyUSA
Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, F. Thompson (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 9%
For those of you keeping score at home that's an additional 89 electoral votes and more than enough to send Hillary to the White House. I'm not suggesting that Hillary will be our next President or that the results will necessariely follow these polls, but discounting her candidacy is completely foolish.
To borrow from Matt Kelty's parlance - A Ham Sandwich could beat the Republican party in the upcoming elections...
6 comments:
Were these respondents offered any other choices? It seems to me that Bill Richardson would kick Hillary's ass in New Mexico...he's a rather popular governor among R's and D's out there.
If Democratic primary voters don't wake up, Hillary Clinton WILL BE our next president. Too bad; at a time when we have a chance to effect real change, Clinton is just another defender of special interests in a different party. A status quo candidate.
Obama or Edwards are much more progressive choices.
I don't plan on voting for Clinton (in primary or general election). That being said, I'll concede this; She is very popular in the Dem. party and very likely to win that primary. And, by the time the general election rolls around, enough people may be so disgusted with Bush that they would vote Dem. in a landslide, no matter who the nominee is.
Of course, we still have over a year to go, but right now, I'd agree that Clinton's prospects look pretty good.
Andrew,
There was polling for the primary as well and I believe she leads in every state - there might be an exception or two I missed.
There were other head-to-heads polled for the general election but none of them involved Richardson that I've seen. Mainly it's just been Hillary-Obama-Edwards vs Guilliani-Romney-McCain
Far, far too early to get excited about Mrs. Bill Clinton. Besides, many of the polls had margins of error in excess of the leads.
She likely only has to win 1 or 2 of those listed - that's the point...
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