Friday, September 21, 2007

Hillary Dominates 2008 Presidential Polls

I had a discussion tonight with local bloggers and city council candidates about the upcoming presidential election. They seemed to disbelieve my comments when I told them that Hillary Clinton would defeat any Republican candidate in the presidential election. I want to issue a caveat here - I'm not a Hillary supporter and I will likely not vote for her in the primary. Unfortunately, the Indiana primary occurs so late in the election cycle that the nominee will will probably already be decided by the time I vote. However, polling data cannot be ignored - despite what the two men sitting next to us at the bar might think. After I reminded them that the polls showed Democrats poised for an epic beatdown of Republicans before the 2006 midterm election they became quite silent with no rebuttal. The moral here is that polls matter.

Let me ask these deniers - which state that Kerry won will Hillary lose? The answer is none. So the question becomes which states that Kerry lost will Hillary win? Here's some of the recent polling data:
Pres '08 (National)
Sep 14 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 43%
Sep 11 CNN
Clinton 55% (D) 55%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton 50% (D) , Giuliani (R) 46%

FL-Pres
Sep 12 Quinnipiac
Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 40%

VA-Pres
Sep 11 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 44%

OH-Pres
Sep 6 Quinnipiac
Clinton 47%, Giuliani 40%
Clinton 49%, Thompson 37%

MO-Pres
Aug 28 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 42%

AR-Pres
Aug 17 Rasmussen
Clinton (D) 55%, Giuliani (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 55%, Thompson (R) 36%

IA-Pres
June 18 SurveyUSA
Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 11%

NM-Pres
June 18 SurveyUSA
Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, F. Thompson (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 9%

For those of you keeping score at home that's an additional 89 electoral votes and more than enough to send Hillary to the White House. I'm not suggesting that Hillary will be our next President or that the results will necessariely follow these polls, but discounting her candidacy is completely foolish.

To borrow from Matt Kelty's parlance - A Ham Sandwich could beat the Republican party in the upcoming elections...

6 comments:

Andrew Kaduk said...

Were these respondents offered any other choices? It seems to me that Bill Richardson would kick Hillary's ass in New Mexico...he's a rather popular governor among R's and D's out there.

Manfred said...

If Democratic primary voters don't wake up, Hillary Clinton WILL BE our next president. Too bad; at a time when we have a chance to effect real change, Clinton is just another defender of special interests in a different party. A status quo candidate.
Obama or Edwards are much more progressive choices.

Phil Marx said...

I don't plan on voting for Clinton (in primary or general election). That being said, I'll concede this; She is very popular in the Dem. party and very likely to win that primary. And, by the time the general election rolls around, enough people may be so disgusted with Bush that they would vote Dem. in a landslide, no matter who the nominee is.

Of course, we still have over a year to go, but right now, I'd agree that Clinton's prospects look pretty good.

Jeff Pruitt said...

Andrew,

There was polling for the primary as well and I believe she leads in every state - there might be an exception or two I missed.

There were other head-to-heads polled for the general election but none of them involved Richardson that I've seen. Mainly it's just been Hillary-Obama-Edwards vs Guilliani-Romney-McCain

Robert said...

Far, far too early to get excited about Mrs. Bill Clinton. Besides, many of the polls had margins of error in excess of the leads.

Jeff Pruitt said...

She likely only has to win 1 or 2 of those listed - that's the point...